Just eight weeks ago when the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as his coach scolded him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team failed to win in six, the question was whether his displays were a symptom or a cause of Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. After Rogers curled home his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to answer. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, even as the wins have piled up.
As per Opta, twice all season have Villa had an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a team which has just won 10 in a row, they appear strangely fragile – yet currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their talisman to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened against United.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the post from a wide position. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club will encounter in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the player he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As Rogers positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
