A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
